Loving All Our Neighbors (3b)

ReltavismFBI Hate Crime Data (Continued)

The following two figures convey hate crime rates from years 2000 to 2013 against persons and property for Muslim (Islamic) and Jewish communities.

Hate Crime Rate for Persons

Hate Crime Rate for Persons

With regard to hate crimes against persons, for the year 2000 the rate for Muslims was less than one-sixth that of Jews. In 2001 we see an enormous increase for Muslims, with the vast majority of crimes likely occurring between September 11 and the year’s end. However, a surprising result is that in 2002, a year that began only 111 days after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Muslim hate crime rate, though still significantly higher than in 2000, had fallen to a level significantly lower than the rate for Jews. From 2003 through 2012 both Muslim and Jewish rates fluctuate around similar levels. However, there is a trend of reducing rates for both groups in 2010, 2011 and 2012.  In 2013 the rate increased slightly for both groups.  Finally, between 2002 and 2013, the average chance of a Muslim or Jew experiencing a personal hate crime in a year was approximately 1-in-22,500.

Hate Crime Rate for Property

Hate Crime Rate for Property

With regard to hate crimes against property (see above chart), for the year 2000 the rate for Muslims was less than one-fourteenth that of Jews. Although the Muslim rate rose drastically in 2001, surprisingly, it was still lower than the Jewish rate. Once again in 2002 the property hate crime rate against Muslims fell precipitously. There has not been a single year between 2000 and 2013 in which the Muslim rate exceeded the Jewish rate.

Between 2002 and 2012, the average yearly chance of a hate crime against Muslim property was approximately 1-in-42,000. For Jewish property the chance was approximately 1-in-10,000. Thus over this period, the Jewish community had more than a four times greater property hate crime rate than the Muslim community.

The worst hate crime is that which leads to the victim’s death. The FBI data tracks hate crimes that result in murder or manslaughter. This data for 2000 through 2013 is shown in the following figure. Note that this figure shows the total number of murder/manslaughters per year, as opposed to the previous charts that show hate crime rates.

Murder/Manslaughter Hate Crimes per Year

Murder/Manslaughter Hate Crimes per Year

Note that only two Muslims have been victims of hate crime murder or manslaughter in the United States between 2000 and 2013.

Hate Crime Analysis

Given the significant differences between crimes against persons and property it doesn’t make sense to simply add these two categories to generate a composite result. However, for 2003 to 2012 the rough parity of personal hate crime rates between Muslims and Jews combined with the drastically higher property rate against Jews clearly indicates a sustained higher hate crime rate against Jews.

Let’s consider the implications of the personal hate crime rate against Muslims between 2002 and 2013. The FBI data indicates that the average yearly likelihood for this type of crime is 1-in-22,500.

Eyes tend to glaze over when presented with numbers such as these. This is where an engineering education comes in handy. If we assume independence from year to year[i], then the likelihood of an American Muslim experiencing at least one personal hate crime over a 72-year life span is less than 1-in-316.

We can use this same analysis to assess the likelihood of murder/manslaughter against Muslims. The FBI data indicates that the average yearly likelihood for this type of crime is approximately 1-in-19,000,000 (one in nineteen-million). Therefore, the likelihood of an American Muslim being killed in a hate crime over a 72-year life span is less than 1-in-269,000.

These results may seem incredible, but consider that one of the reasons you can pick up your cellphone and call a Muslim friend in Pakistan is the validity of the probability theory used here. Insurance actuaries use the same theory to make sure that their company doesn’t go broke paying claims.

This analysis puts the lie to the claim that the United States is a nation seething with hatred for and consequent crimes against Muslims. On the contrary, the Unites States is, in reality, an extremely safe place for Muslims and any other religious group to live.  As Christians, Jesus teaches us to love with our minds as well as with our hearts.


 

[i] The assumption of multiple independent trials with a binary (i.e., yes/no) set of possible outcomes makes this a Binomial experiment. Additional information can be found at: http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/binomial.aspx

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s